Tivo Stock

2006-02-02T08:01:00.000-08:00

I will no longer update this blog. After 4 months and 250 posts, I don't think I have anything else to say in this format. Good luck with your investments.

2005-12-20T20:33:00.000-08:00

I added Tivo reports Feb 28 to important things. It should sell off as it has in the past. I think I will merge, stock rating and predictions before adding that Wed.

2005-12-20T20:30:00.000-08:00

Ex Tivo CEO sold 10,000 shares Monday according to SEC files.

2005-12-20T20:29:00.000-08:00

MS may have put in a bid for SFA according to reports.

2005-12-18T18:46:00.000-08:00

I added Comcast and Dish suit vs Tivo to important things. Will try to give trading advice for 1-3 months and summary of probable news that will impact the stock for a year. I also changed the blog description.

2005-12-18T16:53:00.000-08:00

Happy Holidays to whoever is reading this little blog.

2005-12-18T16:48:00.000-08:00

CES, Macworld, DirecTV report, lawsuit and later in the next year Comcast release seems to be events investors should watch for. I tried to give my opinion on these in the important things, predictions and stock ratings. Along with short posts about news items like ReplayTV stopping production, I think this is the over all feel I have been searching for. There was more news reporting here than I would have liked in the past.

Tivo sell off on DTV report

2005-12-18T16:43:00.000-08:00

I think the NDS, DirecTV Plus, the new DirecTV DVR will sell very well and take share from Tivo and when DTV reports, Tivo will sell off on this news. Last quarter stand alone sales were done BUT DirecTivo sales were great. With the launch of the NDS, that's sure to change the Q4 report. Tivo may have higher SAC and have a good stand alone number but they cannot control the drop in DirecTivo. DTV has said they would stop advertising and producing. You must ask to get a Tivo. The NDS is in stock and all reports are they are selling just fine.

Tivo will lose the case

2005-12-18T16:39:00.000-08:00

I think Tivo will lose the case over the Time Warp patent. I am not a lawyer and I dont advise investing on this advice or betting on suits in general. I added this to predictions and stock rating.

2005-12-18T14:16:00.000-08:00

There are rumors Apple is going to HBO for content as well. Also that Apple may introduce an iPod portable speaker type device.

2005-12-18T11:35:00.000-08:00

Tivo is just $19 after mail in rebate at Amazon.com. The rank is 15 currently. I added this to important things. Tivo stand alone sales dropped almost 50% Q3. They burned money a lot of money gettings subs. They plan to burn even more Q4. The quarter ends Jan 31. Tivo no longer guides sub adds but in the past Q4 was 1/2 sales for the year.

2005-12-18T10:51:00.000-08:00

CES starts Jan 5 and ends 8. I added that to important things. Sorry about that. CES is just before the start of Macworld. Also, I listed the suit in important thing but not a prediction and trading advice. I am still looking at the patent. From what I have read so far, it looks like a patent that covers stand alone devices and not combo. The Dish lawyers are also very good. I will hold off on many any short term trading advice even when I have a full opinion because there may be delays, etc. Investing on the outcome of a lawsuit is not good idea as say a Think Secret rumor.

2005-12-18T10:41:00.000-08:00

I added two more entries to the stock rating with what the stock will do until my predicted Macworld sell off. I will try to refine my trading advice for Tivo over time.

2005-12-18T10:32:00.000-08:00

Adding a rating to the top of the page where there are currently important things and predictions. I will keep the same format as news predictions on my short term trading calls. Important things are removed and only mentioned in a blog entry.

2005-12-18T10:29:00.000-08:00

ReplayTV plans to exit the hardware biz by the end of 2005. That's just a few weeks away. They plan to work with HAUP on PC PVR software to be released NEXT year according to reports. ReplayTV will make this official Monday. Looks like Windows Media Center, free DVRs with video providers and Tivo price cuts had real impact. ReplayTV was second to Tivo and sales for Tivo last quarter were down almost 50%. Things must have not looked great for them.

2005-12-18T10:25:00.000-08:00

The new DirecTV DVR is now at Circuit City dot com. It also recently came into stock online at Best Buy dot com. Looks like distribution as press release from DTV said recently is going smoothly. By all reports sales are great. The replacement of Tivo by the NDS DVR may be impacting Tivo stand alone sales. Tivo got free ads from DirecTV. Not any more.

2005-12-18T10:24:00.000-08:00

Sony settled with Command Audio over a suit saying the Tivo DVR they made infringed. Tivo files with the SEC said they were in talks and the trial was delayed.

2005-12-14T16:45:00.000-08:00

I added the DTV call to important things. We should get the number of sales of the new DVR then. We should also find out how much share it has taken from Tivo and how low DirecTivo sales might fall.

2005-12-14T16:43:00.000-08:00

No more weekly summaries.

Tivo files 10-Q

2005-12-09T20:27:00.000-08:00

Pricing, expected sub adds for Taiwan Tivo

2005-12-09T20:25:00.000-08:00

TiVo Taiwan was launched according to reports. Tivo expects 45,000 adds a year and the service is free for two years then $45 a year after that.

2005-12-08T10:20:00.000-08:00

Added Tivo back to court and at CES to important things.

Tivo testing video blog

2005-12-08T10:19:00.000-08:00

According to several reports, Tivo is testing a video blog downloads.

2005-12-08T10:18:00.000-08:00

Tivo releases PR reminding folks of it's great features and low price. Just in time for the holidays. Makes a great gift they say.

Tivo talks, Tivo in Asia Thursday?

2005-12-08T09:45:00.000-08:00

The article said Tivo would be launch today but I see nothing. Tivo also released a PR with details of talks.

Tivo in Asia

2005-12-08T09:43:00.000-08:00

Article in Chinese paper about the Tivo in Asia with lots of details like no phone lines, not the full version, 160 GB drive, etc. Does not look that great but the DVRs over there are expensive and there is talk from Asian cable guy of support. So who knows?

2005-12-08T09:36:00.000-08:00

Fios, Verizon's net TV which includes a TV, came to FL according to a PR.

2005-12-08T09:35:00.000-08:00

Last week, Tivo said it plans to add ad search on the box next Spring.

2005-12-08T09:33:00.000-08:00

Apple signs TV video deal with NBC and Zucker repeats threats of suit to Dish and Tivo.

2005-12-08T09:31:00.000-08:00

DTV's new DVR is at bestbuy.com and they released a PR saying it was in retail nationwide.

2005-12-08T08:44:00.000-08:00

You can buy Tickets and other things from Tivo with new updates rolling out now.

Missed last week's summary

2005-12-08T08:43:00.000-08:00

Sorry about that. Will lump them into this weeks.

2005-12-08T08:42:00.000-08:00

Added Think Secret will be correct to predictions.

More updates soon

2005-12-07T08:43:00.000-08:00

While Tivo did not extend the fee increase, free Tivo promotion, it does plan to try other payment models. The rebate has been extended but Tivo plans to find ways to drive down SAC while keeping up sub adds. More updates soon like the Apple PVR rumor and buying tickets from Tivo.

House cleaning

2005-12-07T08:39:00.000-08:00

A little bit of house cleaning. I removed the call and the $16.95, free Tivo promotion from important things. I also stated my first prediction of extending that promotion as wrong as well.

Tivo to support VIIV

2005-11-30T02:35:00.000-08:00

Tivo will support Intel media chip brand VIIV according to an AP report. The chip is expected Q1 of next year.

Tivo drops 10% on report

2005-11-29T17:30:00.000-08:00

Tivo reported fewer stand alone adds than last year and $45 M expected loss next quarter. The stock dropped 10% to 5.10.

Tivo-Killer at next Macworld

2005-11-29T17:26:00.000-08:00

Rumor has it Apple is working on a Tivo-Killer. A set top DVR will be at the San Fran Macworld which ends Jan 13 according to Think Secret.

Tivo in Taiwan

2005-11-29T08:10:00.000-08:00

Tivo is going to Taiwan in the next few months according to reports. They tried over seas once in the UK and that went under. This venture is with TGC which they own mostly. Tivo reports after hours today.

Tivo to target, search for ads

2005-11-28T05:29:00.000-08:00

Spring 2006 according to press release.

Tivo short interest up

2005-11-27T16:41:00.000-08:00

Over 126,000. Now over 16.1 M.

Weekly Summary

2005-11-27T16:32:00.000-08:00

Sunday news breaks of possible Sony,Apple deal. Tivo jumps on the news and even gets an upgrade from sell to hold from Stanford. Things are not what they seem however. There was no deals and no contact with anyone. Viacom and NBC also said they might sue Tivo over the changes to file sharing. LG released the MS DVR/DVDR and there was news of a RFID Tivo patent. Tivo reports next week.

Tivo patent: RFID personal DVR

2005-11-23T09:35:00.000-08:00

link

Viacom, NBC has concerns over Tivo

2005-11-23T09:31:00.000-08:00

A little more detail on the reaction to Tivo moving to watermark protection Q1 next year.

"There's some intellectual property questions about the situation," Moonves said about TiVo's plans. link

"TiVo appears to be acting unilaterally, disregarding established rights of content owners to participate in decisions regarding the distribution and exploitation of their content," an NBC Universal spokesperson told Hollywood's Daily Variety trade paper.

"This unilateral action creates the risk of legal conflict instead of contributing to the constructive exploitation of digital technology that can rapidly provide new and exciting experiences for the consumer."

Thus, NBC said, widespread use of such technology could be seen as a clear threat to the network's ability to market and sell such products as DVDs, videotapes and CD-ROMs that contain video and audio copies of original network content.

link

Short interest reported Thursday

2005-11-23T09:30:00.000-08:00

At 4 PM Est.

LG releases Microsoft DVR

2005-11-23T09:29:00.000-08:00

link

Tivo might be sued

2005-11-22T10:49:00.000-08:00

IBD says Variety says Tivo might sued for new to go features. No real shock to anyone. Several people like CNET and Financial Times predicted this.

Is new Tivo feature a good idea?

2005-11-21T07:02:00.000-08:00

"Subscribers will need to purchase certain low-cost software to facilitate the transfer of content from the PC to these portable devices. To discourage abuse or unlawful use of this feature, TiVo intends to employ "watermark" technologies on programs transferred to a portable device using the TiVoToGo feature that would enable tracking of the account from which a transferred program originated."

This feature basically removes blocks from copying from the file. This is not a good idea.

TIVO: Stanford Research ups to HOLD

2005-11-21T06:50:00.000-08:00

$5 price target.

Why Tivo hates digital cable

2005-11-21T06:38:00.000-08:00

Tivo's front page says "saying NO to digital cable?" Why does Tivo not like digital cable? Quality. The picture quality of digital cable when run through your Tivo is down so much, you (I did) might consider trying another DVR. Tivo will have real problems with the move towards digital if it does not fix quality issues. Tivo actually settled a class action suit on the quality of it's DVD recorders. If you just invested in a nice LCD TV or love the quality of your digital cable, Tivo may not be for you.

Tivo to support iPod, PSP

2005-11-21T06:35:00.000-08:00

Tivo plans to support iPod and PSP with it's to go program. It will be launched first quarter of next year. The stock was up on the news Monday.

Weekly Summary

2005-11-21T06:34:00.000-08:00

Tivo tries movie downloads, hires for VOD plans. Media PCs to support Opencable by end of 2006. Cisco to buy SFA.

Cisco to buy Scientific-Atlanta

2005-11-19T05:21:00.000-08:00

Looks like the rumors of SFA sale were true.

Opencable Media PC end of 2006

2005-11-19T05:19:00.000-08:00

Microsoft signed an agreement to have Opencable Media PCs by the end of the next year.

Try Tivo for a month for $5

2005-11-16T05:20:00.000-08:00

Tivo has a new promotion where you pay nothing for the box if you pay $4 more a month. Tivo also has a 30 day refund policy for the service and the hardware. So if you order the Tivo, which ships free at no cost from tvyourway.com, then pay for a month of service, which will be charged back once you cancel, you are just out cost of shipping the box back. Which comes to about $5. I am trying it to confirm you can do this.

Download a movie to Tivo

2005-11-15T17:25:00.000-08:00

Tivo is doing a test with a download of a movie. Tivo trials with Netflix ended recently. Tivo also did download test recently with Football games and just this week, CNET product reviews. I would not expect Tivo to do anything more until early next year when they introduce the new Opencable box. Probably at CES in early January. I would expect that new box to have something like built in networking that supports downloads more than the current box.

Instant $150 rebate

2005-11-15T15:30:00.000-08:00

New Tivo promotion. Here are the terms...

1) Between 10/17/2005 and 11/27/2005, inclusive, participants in this promotion will receive $150 off instantly any TiVoÂ® DVR purchased from www.tivo.com/save150, while supplies last, when a 12-month pre-paid gift subscription to the TiVo service* is purchased at the same time.

Lots of promotions from Tivo recently.

Tivo should refile the 10-Q

2005-11-15T06:59:00.000-08:00

Study says Tivo is failing

2005-11-15T05:26:00.000-08:00

link

Murdoch on new DVR

2005-11-14T12:33:00.000-08:00

THR: Are you going to use personal video recorder technology?
Murdoch: Yes. We think we've developed a PVR, and it's much more than (video-on-demand). Now they're talking about a couple of hundred hours in a TiVo-like device; I'm sure that in two or three years, compression technology will get much further than that, and we'll be at 500 hours. You'll be able to click on the 10 most popular movies. That will take care of 90% of video-on-demand; the rest is going to come through broadband. We're not yet up in broadband. We're starting in partnerships with some of the phone companies, but we may have to provide our own solutions, which would be great because (satellite TV is) wireless and therefore mobile. THR.

Even more VOD news

2005-11-14T12:02:00.000-08:00

Tipping point for VOD? A blog says Tivo has CNET downloads. Sponge Bob shows are also a download to a Hasbro toy coming November.

Nick, Cartoon Network to offer Ondemand

2005-11-14T08:51:00.000-08:00

WSJ says Ondemand is coming from Nick and the Cartoon Network. A lot of Ondemand news recently.

Moxi deploys

2005-11-14T07:06:00.000-08:00

Moxi deploys to Eagle Communications and Service Electric Cablevision according to press releases today.

Lowest volume Friday

2005-11-14T07:05:00.000-08:00

Friday was the lowest volume in Tivo year to date.

DirecTV Media Center spotted

2005-11-14T05:03:00.000-08:00

A Blog spotted the HD, networking DVR expected from DirecTV next year. It says they are still deciding on how to network it.

AOL TW plans to make hundreds of hours of old TV shows like Growing Pains Ondemand for free with commercials.

2005-11-14T04:31:00.000-08:00

Added predictions to blog and the prediction Tivo extends $4 fee increase promotion.

2005-11-12T10:23:00.000-08:00

Added important things to the top of the blog with the call and promotion.

2005-11-12T10:11:00.000-08:00

thestreet.com closed a position in Tivo they opened on the suit (which was delayed). I think they got lucky on Yahoo news.

2005-11-12T10:08:00.000-08:00

Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster said in a research report released Friday, he expects Apple to release a PVR by 2007.

2005-11-11T12:34:00.000-08:00

######################## Week's highlights are Tivo reports Nov 29. Tivo has a promotion where you get a free box if you pay $4 more a month.

2005-11-11T05:36:00.000-08:00

The $16.95 Tivo promotion at TV Your Way dot com includes free service for 30 days so it's no money up front at all.

2005-11-10T11:32:00.000-08:00

A FORG suit that involve DVRs has a markman hearing July 2006.

2005-11-10T11:31:00.000-08:00

PVR Blog points out the $16.95 promotion may be a fee increase for those subs. $4 Tivo fee increase coming?

2005-11-10T11:28:00.000-08:00

One of the things in the fine print of the deal is you cannot upgrade to lifetime. I predict Tom has decided to not offer the lifetime agreement.

2005-11-09T18:57:00.000-08:00

Tivo is doing a promotion where you can get the box for free if you pay $16.95. Offer expires 11/29.

2005-11-09T18:55:00.000-08:00

Wellton Way (they sell Media software) told the EU Commission Microsoft has predatory pricing for the Media Center Edition of Windows.

2005-11-09T09:28:00.000-08:00

Tivo reports Q3 Nov 29 according to a press release from Tivo today.

2005-11-09T06:53:00.000-08:00

3 months free service of Tivo if you buy from Best Buy until Nov 12.

2005-11-08T12:59:00.000-08:00

There are rumors SFA was looking for a buyer.

2005-11-08T08:12:00.000-08:00

NBC will have VOD for 99 cents a show on the new DirecTV DVR. CBS is working on VOD with Comcast. Thanks Jobs!

2005-11-08T05:31:00.000-08:00

Yahoo will allow updates to Tivo from Yahoo TV and add content from Yahoo soon. Tivo pops 13% on the news.

2005-11-08T05:29:00.000-08:00

######################## Weekly summary. Last week DirecTV said they will ship the new DVR this week.

2005-11-08T05:28:00.000-08:00

Tivo is airing 30 minute commercial programs on the Discovery Channel. I caught one last Sunday in the morning.

2005-11-08T05:24:00.000-08:00

I did a little re-design of the blog.

2005-11-07T19:43:00.000-08:00

Over 1 M Sky+

2005-11-04T05:20:00.000-08:00

BSkyB's DVR, Sky+ crossed over the 1 M mark last quarter.

$9 Tivo?

2005-11-03T19:28:00.000-08:00

Tivo is $159 at Amazon.com. So if the $150 rebate applies, it's $9.

Tivo CTO sells 15,000 shares

2005-11-03T17:27:00.000-08:00

According to recent files with the SEC, Barton James sold shares of Tivo today at $5. Planned sale. He still owns 679,999 shares.

250,000 DirecTivo shipped, 11% own DVR?

2005-11-03T15:20:00.000-08:00

DTV said 250,000 DVRs shipped. More to new subs. Recent study said 11% of US own DVR.

Fool.com writes about Google-Tivo rumor

2005-11-03T15:18:00.000-08:00

Google should buy Tivo came up recently in a fool.com article. Old rumor.

Sprint, Cable and DVRs

2005-11-03T15:16:00.000-08:00

Sprint is working with cable and updating your cable DVR from your cell phone was mentioned in a number of articles.

Correction: No NDS last Q

2005-11-03T15:10:00.000-08:00

Today I wrote the NDS may have shipped last Q. NDS and DTV were wrong. None were shipped last Q. It ships next Monday.

Press picks up on new DVR release

2005-11-03T12:51:00.000-08:00

"DirecTV said it will start shipping its own digital video recorder next week."

New DirecTV DVR released

2005-11-03T12:40:00.000-08:00

The new DirecTV DVR made by NDS was released late Oct or will be released next Monday according to NDS store checks and the CEO of DirecTV comments in calls in the last few days. The next thing to look for is if the DirecTV DVR rebate which expires Nov 5 is renewed. I don't expect it will be. Then the new ads which I talked about last week and what pricing they might do. I predicted they would make the service free like the Dishplayer.

Tivo insider files

2005-11-03T06:16:00.000-08:00

Two insider files today. Form 3, an initial ownership file for Andrew. Sale by Tivo's lawyer Zinn sold all his shares.

Comcast reports

2005-11-03T05:32:00.000-08:00

"During the third quarter, Comcast Cable deployed 326,000 advanced set-top boxes with DVR and/or HDTV programming capability, ending the quarter with a total of 2.3 million advanced set-top boxes in service." What percent of digital is DVR seems unclear. 25% of TW is DVR as reported a day ago.

Hard drives in TVs?

2005-11-02T17:29:00.000-08:00

IBD takes a look at the ignored DVR sub sector of hard drives in TV sets.

DirecTV reports Thursday

2005-11-02T06:11:00.000-08:00

We should get more details on NDS release then.

1 M Itunes Video Downloads

2005-11-02T05:56:00.000-08:00

Apple said they reached 1 M video downloads in just 19 days.

TW has 1.3 M DVR users

2005-11-02T05:55:00.000-08:00

Time Warner Cable reported today that they had 1.3 M DVR users, up 134,000 last Q.