Tivo Stock
News that will impact Tivo's stock and how to trade on it
Important Things
Tivo is just $19 after a $150 mail in rebate at Amazon.com
Tivo will be at CES with demos of new things Jan 5, 2006
Tivo goes back to Court in the suit vs Echostar March 2006
DirecTV to report quarter results late Jan, early Feb
Tivo reports Q4 results sometime around the end of Feb
Echostar suit vs Tivo and Comcast-Tivo release late 2006
Predictions
Think Secret Right about Apple having a PVR at Macworld, Jan 9, 2006.
Tivo will lose the case of the Time Warping patent vs Echostar
DirecTV will report the new DVR took considerable share from Tivo
WRONG-Tivo extends $4 fee increase promotion past Nov 29, 2005.
Stock Rating
Sell the stock before Macworld Jan 9, it should sell off a lot
The stock should trade sideways below $5-5.50 until Macworld
There maybe a slight uptick with news of new features at CES to $6
Tivo will sell off on the next DTV report saying Tivo sales are down
Tivo will sell off on loss in the suit to Echostar over Time Warp

Sunday, December 18, 2005

ReplayTV plans to exit the hardware biz by the end of 2005. That's just a few weeks away. They plan to work with HAUP on PC PVR software to be released NEXT year according to reports. ReplayTV will make this official Monday. Looks like Windows Media Center, free DVRs with video providers and Tivo price cuts had real impact. ReplayTV was second to Tivo and sales for Tivo last quarter were down almost 50%. Things must have not looked great for them.
Comments:
this will increase tivo's retail sales. no retail competitor for dvr + schedule, let alone all the other tivo differentiating features.
 
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