Tivo Stock
News that will impact Tivo's stock and how to trade on it
Important Things
Tivo is just $19 after a $150 mail in rebate at Amazon.com
Tivo will be at CES with demos of new things Jan 5, 2006
Tivo goes back to Court in the suit vs Echostar March 2006
DirecTV to report quarter results late Jan, early Feb
Tivo reports Q4 results sometime around the end of Feb
Echostar suit vs Tivo and Comcast-Tivo release late 2006
Predictions
Think Secret Right about Apple having a PVR at Macworld, Jan 9, 2006.
Tivo will lose the case of the Time Warping patent vs Echostar
DirecTV will report the new DVR took considerable share from Tivo
WRONG-Tivo extends $4 fee increase promotion past Nov 29, 2005.
Stock Rating
Sell the stock before Macworld Jan 9, it should sell off a lot
The stock should trade sideways below $5-5.50 until Macworld
There maybe a slight uptick with news of new features at CES to $6
Tivo will sell off on the next DTV report saying Tivo sales are down
Tivo will sell off on loss in the suit to Echostar over Time Warp
Tuesday, December 20, 2005
I added Tivo reports Feb 28 to important things. It should sell off as it has in the past. I think I will merge, stock rating and predictions before adding that Wed.
the reason i don't think it will sell of is that tivo's stock is already suffering from "the sky is falling" syndrome. the new management team invested in price point and market niche research so some extra costs are in the past and ready for maximizing ROI. tivo guided down in last q3, and i think they will actually surprise after having such a steller retail season. tivo is directly tied to the "tv" upgrade cycle we are seeing as well, which is involving more and more consumers as the prices fall within reach of a larger audience.